Policy Papers - May 14, 2007
Climate Change and Conflict: The Migration Link
This publication is part of the CWC Working Paper Series [read more about this publication series]
Nils Petter Gleditsch, Idean Salehyan, and Ragnhild Nordas
From the Introduction: In this paper, we review the current state of knowledge regarding climate change and violent conflict, paying special attention to the influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. We find that much of the literature is speculative and difficult to substantiate given data constraints.
Indeed, current debates frequently focus on possible scenarios in the future, which are inherently difficult to test, although they should not be discounted. Then, we focus on what we believe to be a plausible link between climate shifts and problems for human security: mass migration. Climate change is likely to be a significant factor leading to mass exodus from increasingly uninhabitable areas, and population shifts stemming directly or indirectly from environmental pressures can place significant burdens on migrant-receiving areas.
However, we emphasize the importance of good governance, local integration capacity, and international agents as mitigating factors, and discuss effective policy responses. We conclude that given the many serious warnings from prominent voices, climate change warrants consideration by the United Nations as a security threat, although not necessarily in the traditional sense of military security.
The Global Observatory
New Book by “Ground Zero” Imam: Moderation in the Face of Extremism
While promoting interfaith understanding, Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf was attacked by extremists who used the issue to fan the flames of Islamophobia.
Key Global Events to Watch in May
A list of key upcoming meetings and events with implications for global affairs.
The Global Observatory is a new website by IPI, providing timely analysis on peace and security issues, interviews with leading policymakers, interactive maps, and more.
Contact Us
Adam Lupel | Publications
E-mail
Recent Events
May 10, 2012
Arbour: What the Rule of Law Means
“In my understanding of the rule of law, fundamentally, what the rule of law means is that it embraces the principle of equality before the law,” Louise Arbour, president of the International Crisis Group (ICG), told an IPI audience on May 10, 2012. Ms. Arbour outlined that this means that no one is above the law and everyone has both equal protection and equal benefit of the law. 
May 03, 2012
Shachtman: Cyber Threats Akin to South Bronx, Not Pearl Harbor
“There’s not a danger of a cyber Pearl Harbor… it’s more like the South Bronx circa 1999, where there’s a danger that it becomes such a tough neighborhood that no one wants to set up shop there and people move out,” Noah Shachtman, editor of the Danger Room blog at Wired magazine and non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, told an IPI audience at a panel on cyber security on May 3, 2011.
April 27, 2012
Preventing Conflicts in Africa: The Role of Early Warning and Response Systems
An April 27th roundtable discussion at IPI titled “Preventing Conflicts in Africa: The Role of Early Warning and Response Systems” examined the progress, prospects and challenges of regional and international early warning and response mechanisms to monitor, anticipate, and mitigate potential conflict situations in Africa.